Wednesday, August 18, 2010
By James Grubel
CANBERRA |
Wed Aug 18, 2010 12:44am EDT
CANBERRA (Reuters) - Australian Prime Minister Julia Gillard's Labor government will narrowly win Saturday's election, a Reuters Poll Trend showed on Wednesday, paving the way for a controversial mining tax and a possible carbon trading scheme.
Australia's small Greens party, on course to gain the balance of power in the Senate upper house, said on Wednesday it would seek to toughen the mining tax if Labor wins.The proposed 30 percent tax on iron ore and coal, forecast to raise A$10.5 billion ($9.5 billion) over two years starting 2012, has been signed off on by mining giants BHP Billiton, Rio Tinto and Xstrata, but is opposed by the rest of Australia's key mining sector.The big three miners had earlier warned that a higher mining tax, initially proposed by Labor, would damage investment in the resource sector, reducing Australia's competitiveness as it seeks to supply minerals to China.A Labor victory would also see a possible carbon trading scheme to combat climate change from 2012 and ensure construction of a $38 billion fiber-optic national broadband network.The Liberal-National opposition opposes all three policies.CLOSE ELECTIONWith three days of campaigning left in the tightest election in decades, Labor's f!
loundering support with voters seems to have improved slightly while the conservative opposition is slipping in key eastern states which will decide the election.The latest Reuters Poll Trend shows Labor has a 3 point lead over the opposition, which could see Gillard win a four-seat majority in the 150-seat parliament. Labor had a 16-seat majority at the last election."I think this will be the closest election since 1961, which was a cliff-hanger. I do think this will go down to the wire," Chris Bowen, Labor's campaign spokesman, said on Wednesday.However, the possibility remains that the August 21 election may result in a hung parliament, where neither Labor nor the opposition wins enough seats to form government.In that case the support of three independents will decide which party forms the next government.The election outcome is now certain to be decided in key marginal seats in the resource state of Queensland and Australia's most populous state, New South Wales.The Re!
uters Poll Trend found Gillard could lose up to 11 seats with !
voters a
ngry over the mining tax, a failure by Labor to implement a carbon trading scheme and a perception of weak border protection with the arrival of illegal immigrants.However, voters are also dissatisfied with conservative leader Tony Abbott, with Gillard commanding a 13 point lead as preferred prime minister. Many Australians do not want to vote for Labor, but shun the pugnacious Abbott as leader.Underpinning Labor's last-minute support in key rural seats has possibly been the national broadband network which promises high speed Internet and a plan for medical clinics in rural towns struggling to attract doctors.The opposition has charged Labor with using both policies to win over, or "pork-barrel," marginal seats.Gillard has placed financial competence at the center of her campaign and cast Abbott as a jobs and investment risk, prompting the opposition to outline its economic plan and reassure the central bank of support for its inflation target of 2-3 percent.Online bookmake!
rs sportsbet.com.au said the odds on a Gillard victory, as well as the possibility of a hung parliament, had shortened. "We're still taking far more bets on the (opposition) coalition, and have done for some time, but the serious money all seems to be on Labor," sportsbet's Haydn Lane said.(Additional reporting by Rob Taylor and Michael Perry; Editing by Miral Fahmy and Ron Popeski)
World
Australia
Julia Gillard
Tony Abbott
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