Oscar Predictions - Best Actress and Best Supporting Actress

Wednesday, February 18, 2009
Bill Wine - Celebrity News Service Movie Critic Ten actresses -- five lead actresses and five supporting actresses -- compete for two cherished prizes at the 81st annual Academy Awards ceremony on Sunday evening at the Kodak Theatre in Los Angeles.
Yeah, yeah, I know: it's not a competition. Uh huh: tell that to the ten participants.
So who'll go home with Oscars as Best Actress and Best Supporting Actress?
In the Best Supporting Actress category, Oscar newcomers Viola Davis, as the distraught protective mother in Doubt, and Taraji P. Henson, as the adoptive mother in The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button, have already won their prize: a first Oscar nomination, which has already raised their profiles and stock.
If I had a vote, it would go to the quietly electrifying Ms. Henson. But she's a long shot.
Amy Adams gets her second nomination as the conflicted nun in Doubt, but she's being perceived as an also-ran.
And Marisa Tomei, receiving her third nomination as the "exotic dancer" in The Wrestler -- and with an Oscar already on her mantel -- could pull an upset.
But the most likely Oscar recipient in a very competitive and wide-open category is Penelope Cruz, whose turn as a tempestuous and emotionally unstable ex-wife in Woody Allen's Vicky Cristina Barcelona, got her her second Oscar nomination and has been burning up the pre-Oscars awards circuit.
Cruz won't cruise, but she'll probably win.
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In the Best Actress category, previous Oscar winner Angelina Jolie as the distraught mother of an abducted child in Clint Eastwood's Changeling has been seen as seated at the back of the room ever since her nomination was announced.
That's also true for first-time nominee Melissa Leo as the struggling single mother in Frozen River.
If there's to be an upset, it would have to come from first-time nominee Anne Hathaway for her image-altering turn as a sister in rehab in Rachel Getting Married.
And if I had a vote, it would go to Ms. Hathaway.
But this looks more and more like a two-horse race.
Kate Winslet has gotten six -- count 'em, six -- Oscar nominations faster than any actress in movie history. But she hasn't won yet. Her role as a German woman with at three -- count 'em, three -- scandalous secrets in The Reader struck many of us as a supporting role, but she finds herself in the lead category. And her success on the awards circuit thus far makes it look like this might be her year.
But standing in her way is the formidable Meryl Streep, whose work as the suspicious Sister Aloysius in Doubt, earned her her astounding and record-setting 15th Oscar nomination. But she hasn't actually gone home with a statuette in 26 years. Maybe it's time.
This one's a tossup, but look for Ms. Streep to return to the winner's circle.